McConnell heads down to Dixie — 2020 Democratic primary maneuvering galore
source https://capitalisthq.com/gop-senate-outside-groups-raise-17-million/
Monday 31 July 2017
GOP Senate outside groups raise $17 million
source https://capitalisthq.com/gop-senate-outside-groups-raise-17-million/
JOHN KELLY’s first day — PENCE in Estonia to reassure allies on Russia — SUSAN GLASSER talks to Lebanese PM Hariri — ANNIE KARNI and ELIANA JOHNSON on Jared and Ivanka — B’DAY of the Day: Mark Cuban
Plus some advice for John Kelly on his first day as chief of staff.
source https://capitalisthq.com/john-kellys-first-day-pence-in-estonia-to-reassure-allies-on-russia-susan-glasser-talks-to-lebanese-pm-hariri-annie-karni-and-eliana-johnson-on-jared-and-ivanka-bday-of-t/
Fed Takeaways – Weekly Market Report By CapitalistHQ.com
Good morning,
- Weekly Market Preview – All About Inflation This Week
- Political Analysis: 4 Events That Could Cause a Pullback
- Why Did An Analyst Report Cause a Drop in Stocks Last Thursday?
- Fed Takeaways
- Oil Analysis & Outlook
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet
Futures are basically unchanged following a relatively quiet weekend of market related news, and after more solid economic data.
Economic numbers from Europe remains good as European inflation firmed slightly (core HICP, their CPI, rose 1.2% yoy vs. (E) 1.1%, while unemployment was 9.1% vs. (E) 9.2%.
Chinese official July manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations at 51.4 vs. (E) 51.5, but the number remains comfortably above the important 50 level.
Meanwhile, political noise and drama grew ever bigger over the weekend (NK missile launch, White House Chief of Staff change, Russian’s expelling US diplomats, Verbal attacks on China from the administration over North Korea) but from a market standpoint this is all background noise and it won’t move markets despite the headlines.
Today should be a relatively quiet day as there is just one economic report, Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%), and no notable Fed speakers and the critical economic releases this week don’t start still tomorrow (the Core PCE Price Index). So, absent any easily identifiable catalysts this morning, we’re back to watching the tech sector – as it goes, so goes the market.
Sincerely,
CapitalistHQ.com
Stocks
This Week
Earnings are largely “over” from a market influence standpoint, although there are still some big names to report (AAPL on Tuesday is this week’s highlight).
But the real focus of markets this week will be on economic data and specifically inflation metrics. Tomorrow’s core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) and Friday’s wage number in the jobs report will be key. Soft numbers will spark a “dovish” sector move, while strong numbers will push reflation sectors and assets higher.
Last Week (Needed Context as We Start a New Week)
Stocks were little changed last week as early gains, powered by strong earnings, were undone by soft earnings and a sharp pullback midday Thursday. That move was caused by a cautious note from a well-respected analyst. The S&P 500 slid 0.02%, and is up 10.42% year to date.
Trading was quiet at the start of last week, as stocks drifted slightly lower Monday despite strong July flash PMIs. Markets rallied on Tuesday following strong blue-chip earnings (the Dow led markets) and stocks were up modestly going into the middle of the week.
Wednesday was a day of digestion, as the FOMC meeting provided no real surprises (balance sheet reduction in September, probably a rate hike in December).
The week saw volatility on Thursday as an early earnings-related rally was undone by a cautious research report from J.P. Morgan quant analyst Marko Kolanovic. The Nasdaq went into mini-freefall midday Thursday, but steadied by the afternoon, and the S&P 500 managed to finish flat after being down nearly 1% intraday.
On Friday, markets opened modestly weaker on soft earnings and on carryover from Thursday’s volatility. Then the soft economic data (ECI) came in and led to a dip in bond yields, as stocks drifted higher to finish with mild losses (essentially flat on the week).
Your Need to Know
Last week was the peak of earnings season, so sector trade was dominated by corporate results. Generally speaking, the numbers were pretty predictable: Sectors that have seen massive YTD outperformance saw selling on decent earnings (SOXX). Conversely, sectors that have massively lagged YTD saw short covering on results (consumer discretionary and energy both outperformed last week). But, nothing in the results in aggregate appear to warrant any tactical sector buying or selling.
The one exception is the Dow Transports, which plunged more than 2% last week on bad UPS and LUV earnings/guidance. We watch Dow Theory closely, so the weakness there caught out attention, but that hasn’t prompted a trend change yet.
So, with earnings behind us, the focus returns to the tech sector, which remains the key to this market. Tech is over-owned and crowded, but fundamentals and momentum remain positive. So, as has been the case for all of 2017, as tech goes, so too goes the market near term. Last Thursday’s midday reversal did look scary for a bit, but by itself it’s not a reason to materially abandon tech allocations (although if you want to lighten up a bit in favor of international exposure, that certainly is understandable and we will likely do that this week. For now, tech (FDN and SOXX) are still in well-defined uptrends.
Bottom Line
Is this as good as it gets?
It’s a legitimate question to ask as the macro outlook looks relatively benign (barring one major issue, which we’ll get to). First, Q2 earnings season is largely over and the results were strong, and the 2018 consensus S&P 500 EPS (per FactSet) is $139. That means we’re trading at 17.7X next year’s earnings, historically high (and unsustainable) but that’s where we’ve been all year, so by itself it’s not a reason to sell.
Second, economic data remains uninspiring but it’s not rolling over materially, and the loss of momentum in inflation is making the Fed back off its hawkish rhetoric from earlier in 2017. Longer term this may cause a problem from a “too easy for too long” standpoint, but that won’t result in a near-term correction.
Third, the market has weathered the ever-increasing political soap opera in Washington with impressive resilience. Near term, with Obamacare repeal dead, and tax reform still months away from anything concrete (markets don’t expect action till Q1 2018), as long as Republicans don’t do the unthinkable and either 1) Shut down the government as the controlling party or 2) Have a debt ceiling scare, politics shouldn’t be a major influence on markets (as long as Trump doesn’t fire Mueller or introduce steel tariffs that trigger a trade war).
So, while there’s not a lot to push stocks materially higher, the outlook is at least benign… for now. However, the sense of complacency in the inevitability of a rally is growing, and we’ve seen that in the VIX at record lows, a concern mentioned in a key JPM quant report that took markets down Thursday.
There is a potentially enormous shift occurring over the coming months as 1) The Fed begins to reduce its balance sheet, and 2) The ECB announces the tapering of its QE program.
From a broad sense, if we admit that historical, decade-long easy policy from central banks birthed this current positive set up for markets, then it’s a legitimate concern to wonder how stocks will react once that accommodation begins to be withdrawn.
While the bulls will argue policy will stay very easy for a long time (and that’s true), often times in markets it is the second derivative (the rate of change of change) that moves stock and bond prices.
So, we are left with two concerns: 1) What positive catalyst is looming out there to push stocks materially higher? 2) Why are markets too complacent heading into balance sheet reduction/ECB tapering (i.e. low VIX).
Given this backdrop, we remain cautiously positive on markets and our preference remains towards more defensive sectors: Super-cap tech (FDN/SOXX), healthcare (XLV/IHF/IBB), and international exposure including Europe via HEDJ/EZU and emerging markets via IEMG. Japan also is becoming more attractive via EWJ. We are not adding to the small initial positions we took in our “Reflation” ETFs of KRE, XLI, IWM, TBT and TBF, although we are holding them.
For now, the outlook requires a “steady as she goes” mentality with focus on sector selection, although our eye remains to the macro horizon as we are afraid things are as good as they can get.
Economic Data (What You Need to Know in Plain English)
Need to Know Econ from Last Week
Data has been remarkably consistent the last few weeks, including last week: “OK” but not great economic growth, and consistent signs that inflation is losing momentum. As such, the economic data continues to point to a “Stagnation” set up for stocks and other assets.
Given that inflation trends are more important than growth trends right now, I’ll start with the Quarterly Employment Cost Index, which, like many other inflation indicators in Q2, slightly missed estimates. The Q2 ECI rose 0.5% vs. (E) 0.6, maintaining a 2.4% yoy increase from Q1, but slightly disappointing vs. expectations.
Additionally on Friday, the PCE Price Indices from the Q2 GDP report showed deceleration in the pace of inflation. The PCE Price Index rose just 1% in Q2 vs. (E) 1.2%. Now, none of these inflation statistics are particularly bad. Yet from a policy standpoint, these numbers won’t make the Fed eager to tighten policy ahead of the current schedule (balance sheet reduction in September, rate hike, probably, in December).
Turning to actual growth data, it was “ok” but not great. Q2 GDP met expectations with a 2.6% yoy gain, and that was a true number as Final Sales of Domestic Product (which is GDP less inventories) was also 2.6%. Consumer Spending, or PCE as it’s known in the GDP report, rose 2.8%, again a solid but unspectacular number.
Similarly, June Durable Goods, while a decent report, wasn’t that strong. The headline was a big beat at 6.5% vs. (E) 3.5%, but that was because of one-time airline orders. New Orders for Non-Defense Capital Goods ex-aircraft, the best proxy for corporate spending and investment, was revised higher in May but dipped 0.1% in June. Point being, like most growth data recently, it wasn’t a bad report, but it’s not the kind of strength that will spur a reflationary rally.
Finally, the one economic data point that was strong last week was the July flash manufacturing PMI. It rose to 54.2 vs. (E) 53.2, but while that is a potential positive (it’s a July report so it’s the most current) the PMIs are surveys, and the gap between soft survey data and “hard” economic numbers remains wide.
Turning to the Fed meeting last week, the two takeaways were: 1) The Fed confirmed that they will reduce the balance sheet in September, barring any big economic or inflation surprises. 2) The Fed did slightly downgrade the inflation outlook, but importantly it kept open the option to hike rates at any meeting, and as such a December rate hike is still likely).
Important Economic Data This Week
As stated, inflation is more important than growth data right now, so that means two most important numbers this week will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index (contained in the Personal Income and Outlays report) and Friday’s wage data in the jobs report.
Stocks have rallied since Yellen turned incrementally dovish at her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, and soft inflation data will further that sentiment and underpin stocks. Conversely, if we see inflation bounce back, that will push bond yields higher and help reflation assets (banks, small caps, inverse bond funds, cyclicals).
But, inflation stats aren’t the only important numbers this week as we get the latest final manufacturing and composite US and global PMIs. They remain important because they will provide anecdotal insight into the pace of the US and global economy. But again, it would be a pretty big surprise if the data suddenly showed slowing in the global economy.
On the flip side, at least for the US, a strong report would be welcome, because strong economic data won’t cause the Fed to get more “hawkish” unless inflation ticks higher.
Commodities, Currencies & Bonds
In Commodities, the segment was mostly higher last week as weakness in the dollar following the Fed announcement buoyed the entire complex, particularly the metals. Energy also surged thanks to inventory draws in the US and bullish developments out of OPEC. The commodity tracking index ETF, DBC, added 3.46% on the week.
Beginning with energy, oil futures posted solid gains last week with WTI gaining 9.19% and making a run at the $50/barrel mark, a level not seen since late May. The headlines to the EIA report were bullish, with both gasoline and oil stockpiles showing another set of declines. Looking overseas, Saudi Arabia announced that they would be cutting their oil exports (not production, however) by 600K bbls to help ease the global glut. Both were bullish developments.
Going back to the EIA, the details were not so optimistic. Lower 48 production rose 35K b/d, bringing the figure to the highest in over two years, above the 9M b/d mark. Bottom line, futures prices are solidly trending higher, and for the time being the benefit of the doubt is with the bulls. Yet it’s hard to imagine oil gaining materially higher in the absence of a slowdown in US production, which leaves us cautious towards this uptrend in oil.
Natural gas futures declined 1.25% last week but finished off the worst levels as a combination of weather reports and bullish inventory data helped fuel a rally Thursday. Natural gas continues to establish a bottom in the mid $2.80s, an area that offers a solid risk/reward set up as both fundamentals and technicals are bullish.
In the metals market, gold rallied 1.64% last week as the net outcome of the Fed Wednesday was that we are in a stagnation period characterized by low inflation and sideways interest rates. Momentum continues to favor the bulls, but the longer-term technical outlook is neutral for gold following the early July breakdown in the 2017 uptrend. New highs above $1300 would turn the technical outlook back in favor of the bulls.
Looking at Currencies and Bonds, the Dollar Index hit new, 52-week lows last week thanks to a dovishly interpreted Fed decision, lackluster inflation data and hawkish rhetoric from ECB officials. The Dollar Index fell 0.6% with all the losses coming Friday.
Looking at last week’s three main catalysts, inflation (or lack thereof) remains the key influence on the currency and bond markets. Last week’s ECB and soft GDP Price Indices resulted in the dollar falling Friday, and that accounted for most of the week’s declines. That soft inflation also is what’s contributing to the Fed backing off its previous hawkish rhetoric. Until we see inflation firming here in the US, the dollar will remain under pressure as other global central banks are becoming, on the margin, less dovish.
Most foreign currencies rose similar amounts vs. the dollar last week, again reinforcing the point that last week’s dollar declines were US-data driven. The euro rose 0.65% aided by some hawkish comments from ECB member Ewald Nowotny, while the pound drifted 0.61% higher into their central bank meeting this week (no change to rates is expected, but there might be hawkish connotations in the inflation report).
Turning to bonds, Treasury yields drifted slightly higher (10 year up 4 basis points) but that was mostly due to an oversold bounce following the steep declines of two weeks ago.
Going forward, Treasury yields remain at the mercy of two main forces: 1) US inflation data and 2) Global bond yields (especially bunds). The former is weighing on yields, but the latter is putting upward pressure on yields. Barring a surprise economic slowdown, we do not anticipate US Treasury yields retesting the 2017 lows of 2.10%.
This week, economic data will be key for the dollar and bond yields, especially the wage number contained in the jobs report on Friday.
Special Reports and Editorial
Cutting Through the Political Noise: 4 Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback
The political noise and theatre has officially reached a new level, with Russia, pardons, impeachment and other such terms of significant connotation being bandied about in the media seemingly every day. And if we were just reading the media headlines, it would cause someone to go into serious risk-off mode in their portfolio, especially given the tenor of the major news outlets.
But as we and others have been saying all year long, the market has so far successfully insulated itself from all the political drama, as it doesn’t have anything to do with earnings or (as of yet) the economy.
We’ve been consistent in our coverage of the political landscape, and I feel that we’ve done a good job cutting through the distracting noise. Yet given the recent uptick in political fervor across the media (including financial media), I think it’s helpful to identify, clearly, what political events could actually cause a pullback in stocks.
Absent one of four events happening (as it stands right now), politics will remain a distraction, but not a bearish influence. To be clear, we do not think any of these events are likely at this time; however, we are watching for any hints they might become more probable and cause us to reduce risk and equity exposure.
Political Pullback Event #1: Trump Fires Mueller. There are rumors and speculation swirling that President Trump will fire Robert Mueller, the special counsel in charge of the Russian election tampering investigation. So far, he is not expected to fire him, but Trump is unpredictable. If Trump were to do it, that would cause a risk-off move in markets, as everyone would take it as a tacit admission of some guilt on Trump’s part (i.e. fire the investigator before he finds something).
But even if Trump wanted to fire Mueller, he actually can’t. Only the acting Attorney General can fire Mueller. So first, Trump would need to fire Attorney General Sessions, and then the deputy Attorney General (Rosenstein). Then he would keep firing people until he found someone in the Justice Department that would fire Mueller. If this sounds familiar, it should, because that is what Nixon did when he fired Watergate Special Counsel Archibald Cox.
Given that history (rightly or not) people and markets would take the firing as a de facto admission of guilt that the president did something wrong, even if it’s not true. To boot, Congress would likely reappoint Mueller to the same job immediately, resulting in a massive standoff between the executive and legislative branches of the federal government. Nothing here would be positive for stocks, and a “sell first, ask questions later” mood could sweep across the markets.
Political Pullback Event #2: Steel Tariffs. The idea that the Commerce Department could impose sweeping steel tariffs (likely aimed at China) is a potential negative for markets, because it could ignite a trade war, which would be bad for US and global economic growth. Whether steel tariffs would result in retaliation from China or other nations remains to be seen, but the fact is that macro-economic risks would rise, and once again we’d have a “sell first” reaction from stocks.
Political Pullback Event #3: Government Shutdown. The current budget for the operation of the government ends on Sept. 30. Now, the probability of a shutdown remains low because the Republicans control the government. So, they’d literally shut down the government as the majority party a year ahead of elections, a move so politically stupid that it’s almost inconceivable.
However, this is Washington, and right now the budget being advanced through the House contains $1.6 billion in funding for the Mexican border wall, and a lot of cuts to domestic program. So, we can expect united Democratic opposition and (importantly) some moderate Republicans (Collins, McCain) to potentially oppose the budget, which makes passage in the Senate uncertain.
Political Pullback Event #4: Debt Ceiling. We’re getting a lot closer to the mid-October deadline, and there’s been no progress made. Like the government shutdown, political common sense implies this won’t be a problem given it would be politically disastrous for Republicans. Congress has until mid-October to extend the debt ceiling, or face another default drama.
FOMC Decision
The Fed left rates unchanged and did not alter its balance sheet, as expected. The Fed decision met our “What’s Expected” scenario, as the Fed said balance sheet reduction “relatively soon,” which is Fed speak for September.
To boot, as was also generally expected, the Fed slightly downgraded the outlook for inflation, saying that inflation was running below 2%, as opposed to the previous “running somewhat” below 2%. It’s a minor change that largely reflects the Fed’s recent cautious language on inflation. However, the Fed said that risks to the recovery remained “roughly balanced,” which is Fed speak for “We can hike rates at any meeting.” That last point is important, because risks remaining “roughly balanced” leaves a rate hike in December firmly on the table (Fed fund futures odds have it at 50/50).
Currency and bond markets reacted “dovishly” to the decision, but again that’s due more to a Pavlovian dovish response to any Fed decision rather than an accurate reflection of the Fed yesterday. In reality, the Fed wasn’t materially dovish.
Bottom line, the policy outlook remains the same: The Fed will reduce its balance sheet in September, and likely will hike rates again in December, barring any economic slowdown or further decline in inflation statistics (at which point both events will become less certain). That was the market’s expectation before the Fed meeting Wednesday, and that’s the market expectation after the Fed decision.
EIA Analysis and Oil Update
On the inventory headlines, last week’s EIA report was bullish. While the -7.2M bbl print in oil stocks fell short of the API’s -10.2M, it was much greater than the consensus analyst estimate of -2.6M bbls. The drop in gasoline stocks of -1.0M bbls was largely in line with estimates, but was also seen as bullish, as it was less than the API’s +1.9M bbl build.
The huge 10M bbl draw in crude stocks was the fourth sizeable weekly drop in a row totaling more than 25M barrels, which suggests that refiners are ramping up operations to satisfy the new “real demand” from the East Coast and other “consumer areas.” Digging into the details of the report, there was a shift in the gasoline data in the prior week’s EIA report that showed a significant weekly decline in PADD1 (East Coast) inventories, which is generally seen as “real demand” vs. a draw in PADD3 (Gulf Coast), which can be more a function of refining, production and logistics activities. That bullish trend continued in this week’s report as PADD1 supply was -2.2M bbls.
The production data was bullish at first glance, as total US output fell for the first time in a month with a decline of 19K b/d. That was being paired with bullish industry comments from earlier this week suggesting that US producers are poised to dial down their production growth efforts. The headline was misleading, however, as the drop was due to a sharp pullback in Alaskan production (-54K b/d), and lower 48 production actually rose 35K b/d to break through the 9.0M b/d mark for the first time in over two years.
Bottom line, the near-term trend of falling oil stocks is helping fuel a rally in the energy space; however, the trend of rising US oil production remains relentless. Until that trend begins to show signs of slowing, the upside gains in the energy market will be limited. On the charts, the psychological $50 level will be magnetic, as options’ traders push the market to where the high-volume contracts are (generally round numbers like $50 see higher volumes). Beyond that area, there is significant resistance between $51 and $52/barrel.
Why Did a Research Report Cause a Reversal Thursday?
The most likely “cause” of Thursday’s midday reversal (which frankly looked ugly for an hour or so) was a cautious report from JPM quant analyst Kolanovic, and the reasons it caused a dip are twofold. First, Kolanovic is very respected on the Street, and he was one of the first analysts to correctly identify the role of “Risk Parity” funds in the violent market declines of August 2015. Second, he outright suggested investors hedge equity exposure.
Now, to be clear, it wasn’t a bearish report, as he did note there are strong, positive fundamental factors supporting stocks including a rising economic tide and growing earnings.
However, he made the point that, in his opinion, market volatility is now at an all-time low. The specific accuracy of this claim can be debated, but let’s all agree market volatility is close to, if not at, all-time lows.
The all-time lows in volatility have caused funds to use increasingly leveraged strategies to generate outsized returns. Selling volatility options is one of the simplest leveraged strategies, but the point is this: Quant funds and traders will ratchet-up leverage in low volatility environments to increase returns amidst perceived lower risk. And, since volatility is at or near all-time lows (and has been for some time) these leveraged strategies are both abundant and large.
And, this all-time low volatility and explosion of leveraged strategies is coming right at a time when global central banks are reducing monetary accommodation for the first time in, well, a decade.
So, while the analogy of fireworks sitting on top of a powder keg is a bit over the top, it does illustrate the general idea behind Kolanovic’s caution.
Bottom line, in my opinion, this report by itself isn’t a reason to materially de-risk, as the same argument could have been made about this market over the past few months (as it’s made new highs). But, Kolanovic is a smart guy, so his caution should be noted.
Finally, two anecdotal points. First, I believe what really spooked markets Thursday was Kolanovic referenced this current set up as being similar to “Portfolio Insurance,” a strategy that failed miserably and contributed to the crash of 1987. Obviously, that’s not an uplifting analogy.
Second, for those of us watching the tape yesterday, the mini-freefall we saw in tech and specifically SOXX and FDN, was a bit unnerving. Things steadied, but the pace of the declines midday Thursday was a bit scary. That tells me these are very, very crowded trades, and I am going to have a “think” on potentially lightening up some exposure to that tech sector in favor of shifting it internationally (Europe, Japan, and perhaps emerging markets). Food for thought.
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source https://capitalisthq.com/fed-takeaways-weekly-market-report-by-capitalisthq-com/
Sunday 30 July 2017
PELOSI to CHRIS WALLACE: ‘I am a master legislator’ — CAN KELLY ‘TAME’ the White House zoo? — SENIOR ADVISERS’ ‘casual access’ to Trump will continue — JARROD AGEN promoted — NEW NYT podcast — B’DAY: Jim Rutenberg
PELOSI to CHRIS WALLACE: ‘I am a master legislator’ — CAN KELLY ‘TAME’ the White House zoo? — SENIOR ADVISERS’ ‘casual access’ to Trump will continue — JARROD AGEN promoted — NEW NYT podcast — B’DAY: Jim Rutenberg
source https://capitalisthq.com/pelosi-to-chris-wallace-i-am-a-master-legislator-can-kelly-tame-the-white-house-zoo-senior-advisers-casual-access-to-trump-will-c/
Saturday 29 July 2017
GOOD MORNING FROM LOS ANGELES — The REINCE post-mortems — POTUS complaining about him ‘reached a fever pitch’ — PURDUM: ‘Why Priebus was destined to fail’ — KELLY seen as a ‘beacon of discipline’ — WEEKEND READS
GOOD MORNING FROM LOS ANGELES — The REINCE post-mortems — POTUS complaining about him ‘reached a fever pitch’ — PURDUM: ‘Why Priebus was destined to fail’ — KELLY seen as a ‘beacon of discipline’ — WEEKEND READS
source https://capitalisthq.com/good-morning-from-los-angeles-the-reince-post-mortems-potus-complaining-about-him-reached-a-fever-pitch-purdum-why-priebus-was-destined-to-fail-kelly-s/
McMaster's Masters
Commissioned Cartoon for good buddy Mike CernovichPrint Available
source https://capitalisthq.com/mcmasters-masters/
Maryland congressman eyes 2020
Senate Majority PAC raised $4.5 million — LePage says Collins is going to run for governor
source https://capitalisthq.com/maryland-congressman-eyes-2020/
Friday 28 July 2017
Removing the Tumor
It’s time for John McCain to retire. The 80 year-old Arizona senator was diagnosed with a brain tumor. Any normal man would spend his remaining time with his family. Not McCain. He remains determined to do maximum damage to President Trump and the USA.
McCain is a deep state stooge. He’s an angry poodle on the leash of George Soros. He’s a globalist who is pro-massive immigration, pro-war and pro-trannies in the military. He’s not a war hero no matter how many times that lie is repeated by the fakestream media. Getting shot down and suffering wounds does not make him a hero. “Song Bird” McCain told the North Vietnamese secret info which caused more Americans to die in Vietnam. He wet started his jet on the USS Forrestal as a prank. It started a massive fire that led to the death of 134 sailors. Tomorrow marks the 50th anniversary of that tragedy. McCain had to be helicoptered off the ship because many sailors were calling for his scalp. As a senator, the war-mongering traitor John McCain has enriched himself by wetstarting on America.
McCain is malignant tumor. He has given America a massive headache for way too long.
Original Cartoon Sold!
source https://capitalisthq.com/removing-the-tumor/
HEALTH CARE BILL GOES UP IN FLAMES as McCain sinks ‘skinny’ repeal — FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: House GOP leaders raise big bucks for Scalise — JAMES RISEN leaving NYT — KASIE HUNT may get MSNBC show — B’DAY: Richard Haass
It is not clear what happens next for Republicans' health care efforts.
source https://capitalisthq.com/health-care-bill-goes-up-in-flames-as-mccain-sinks-skinny-repeal-first-in-playbook-house-gop-leaders-raise-big-bucks-for-scalise-james-risen-leaving-nyt-kasie-hunt-may-get/
Recruiting push: Club for Growth poll shows Hawley leading McCaskill
O’Rourke outraised Cruz in Texas — FEC tangles over Russia action
source https://capitalisthq.com/recruiting-push-club-for-growth-poll-shows-hawley-leading-mccaskill/
BREAKING – Senate BLOCKS GOP Health Bill in Midnight Vote
The Senate blocked the latest attempt by the GOP to repeal Obamacare in a midnight vote, stalling one of President Trump’s main campaign promises.
Who were the three GOP lawmakers who blocked the bill? Never Trumper Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and John McCain of Arizona in a 49-51 vote. After McCain gave his thumbs down and said ‘no’, gasps could be heard from the Democrat side of the aisle (McCain’s friends).
CNBC reports:
The Senate blocked the latest Republican attempt to repeal Obamacare in a dramatic floor vote early Friday morning, yet again stalling — for now — the key campaign goal that eludes the GOP six months into the Trump administration.
Three GOP votes — Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and John McCain of Arizona — sank the measure in a 49-51 vote. McCain, who recently returned to the Senate after getting diagnosed with brain cancer, cast his “no” vote to audible gasps on the chamber’s floor, according to reporters there.
Senate Republicans released the plan late Thursday just hours before voting on an amendment to take up the bill.
Here are the provisions in the so-called skinny repeal bill, which the GOP titled the Health Care Freedom Act:
- It would repeal the individual mandate, which is the requirement that most Americans buy insurance or pay a penalty. The provision was intended to help control costs by encouraging younger, healthier people to enter the market. Republicans have said it forced people to buy plans they did not want.
- The bill would roll back the employer mandate, a similar provision that says large employers have to provide insurance for their workers.
- The plan would expand a program that allows states to waive certain provisions under Obamacare.
- It would suspend the medical device tax.
- The proposal would increase contribution limits for tax-free health savings accounts.
- It would defund women’s health provider Planned Parenthood for one year.
President Trump has repeatedly urged lawmakers to come together to get a functioning healthcare system in place since Obamacare is failing.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Republicans do not want to repeal Obamacare. They have had SEVERAL years to come up with a solid plan, yet fail at every chance.
As TGP previously reported, in a stunning admission, former Minority Whip Eric Cantor now admits the GOP was never serious about repealing the healthcare bill. It was all a charade.
He (Cantor) says he wasn’t the only one aware of the charade: “We sort of all got what was going on, that there was this disconnect in terms of communication, because no one wanted to take the time out in the general public to even think about ‘Wait a minute—that can’t happen.’ ” But, he adds, “if you’ve got that anger working for you, you’re gonna let it be.”
Cantor isn’t the only one who believes repealing Obamacare is a charade. The Gateway Pundit reported in the past week, former Speaker Boehner said the prospects of repealing Obamacare were non-existent.
Former House Speaker, John Boehner said the GOP won’t be able to repeal and replace Obamacare at a closed-door tradeshow in Las Vegas, NV Friday.
John Boehner told a private crowd that Obamacare will never be repealed or replaced by the GOP because Americans and state officials are used to it in, a video obtained by The Washington Post.
Boehner also warned that Republicans will get annihilated in 2018 midterm elections if they fail to pass healthcare and tax legislation.
“Here we are, seven months into this year, and yet they’ve not passed this bill. Now, they’re never…they’re not going to repeal and replace Obamacare. It’s been around too long. And the American people have gotten accustomed to it. Governors have gotten accustomed to this Medicaid expansion, and so trying to pull it back is really not going to work.”
Conservative watchdog group Judicial Watch has called for the Trump administration to end Congressional exemption of Obamacare. This may be the ONLY way for Congress to actually get anything done–if it actually affected their own lives!
(Washington, DC) – Judicial Watch requested the Trump administration stop members of Congress and their staff from unlawfully purchasing, with taxpayer subsidies, health insurance through the District of Columbia’s small business exchange. The Judicial Watch request was made on June 14, 2017, to the Centers for Medicare Medicaid Services (CMS) as part of a process set out by the Department of Health and Human Services to reform the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), otherwise known as Obamacare.
President of Judicial Watch, Tom Fitton had this to say about the frauds in Congress:
“Congress, through fraud, is violating Obamacare to get taxpayers to pay for its health insurance. If the Trump administration required Congress to follow the law, taxpayers would be saving money, pure and simple. We hope the Trump administration will end this clear violation of law by Congress.”
source https://capitalisthq.com/breaking-senate-blocks-gop-health-bill-in-midnight-vote/
Thursday 27 July 2017
House Democrats tread lightly into 2018 primaries
Ohio Democrats 'wait and see' amid Cordray rumors — Messer jumps into Indiana Senate race
source https://capitalisthq.com/house-democrats-tread-lightly-into-2018-primaries/
Scaramucci Fires Off Tweet in Response to Explosive Interview Slamming Reince Priebus
Anthony Scaramucci set off a firestorm after the New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza published a piece where the White House Communications Director called Reince Priebus a “f*cking paranoid schizophrenic, a paranoiac.” Scaramucci also voiced his frustrations with leakers, saying he wants to ‘f*cking kill’ them, so the White House can focus more on passing President Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda.
“I sometimes use colorful language. I will refrain in this arena but not give up the passionate fight for @realDonaldTrump‘s agenda. #MAGA,” tweeted Scaramucci
I sometimes use colorful language. I will refrain in this arena but not give up the passionate fight for @realDonaldTrump‘s agenda. #MAGA
— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) July 27, 2017
As previously reported by The Gateway Pundit, Scaramucci said he wants to “f*cking kill all the leakers and I want to get the President’s agenda on track so we can succeed for the American people.”
The New Yorker reported:
He reiterated that Priebus would resign soon, and he noted that he told Trump that he expected Priebus to launch a campaign against him. “He didn’t get the hint that I was reporting directly to the President,” he said. “And I said to the President here are the four or five things that he will do to me.” His list of allegations included leaking the Hannity dinner and the details from his financial-disclosure form.
I got the sense that Scaramucci’s campaign against leakers flows from his intense loyalty to Trump. Unlike other Trump advisers, I’ve never heard him say a bad word about the President. “What I want to do is I want to fucking kill all the leakers and I want to get the President’s agenda on track so we can succeed for the American people,” he told me.
He cryptically suggested that he had more information about White House aides. “O.K., the Mooch showed up a week ago,” he said. “This is going to get cleaned up very shortly, O.K.? Because I nailed these guys. I’ve got digital fingerprints on everything they’ve done through the F.B.I. and the fucking Department of Justice.”
“What?” I interjected.
“Well, the felony, they’re gonna get prosecuted, probably, for the felony.” He added, “The lie detector starts—” but then he changed the subject and returned to what he thought was the illegal leak of his financial-disclosure forms. I asked if the President knew all of this.
“Well, he doesn’t know the extent of all that, he knows about some of that, but he’ll know about the rest of it first thing tomorrow morning when I see him.”
Scaramucci said he had to get going. “Yeah, let me go, though, because I’ve gotta start tweeting some shit to make this guy crazy.”
The Gateway Pundit reported earlier that the White House Communications Director unleashed on Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, branding him a ‘”f*cking paranoid schizophrenic, a paranoiac,”
The New Yorker reports:
I asked him why it was so important for the dinner to be kept a secret. Surely, I said, it would become public at some point. “I’ve asked people not to leak things for a period of time and give me a honeymoon period,” he said. “They won’t do it.” He was getting more and more worked up, and he eventually convinced himself that Priebus was my source.
“They’ll all be fired by me,” he said. “I fired one guy the other day. I have three to four people I’ll fire tomorrow. I’ll get to the person who leaked that to you. Reince Priebus—if you want to leak something—he’ll be asked to resign very shortly.” The issue, he said, was that he believed Priebus had been worried about the dinner because he hadn’t been invited. “Reince is a fucking paranoid schizophrenic, a paranoiac,” Scaramucci said. He channelled Priebus as he spoke: “ ‘Oh, Bill Shine is coming in. Let me leak the fucking thing and see if I can cock-block these people the way I cock-blocked Scaramucci for six months.’ ” (Priebus did not respond to a request for comment.)
Scaramucci called Lizza because the reporter tweeted that the newly-minted White House staffer reported Priebus to the FBI for leaking his financial disclose.
source https://capitalisthq.com/scaramucci-fires-off-tweet-in-response-to-explosive-interview-slamming-reince-priebus/
WOW! Turkish Newspaper Publishes FAKE Interview With Jared Kushner
Despite the intense media scrutiny of Jared Kushner, the White House Senior Advisor rarely speaks to the press. That didn’t stop Turkish newspaper Aksam from running a completely fabricated interview between its White House Correspondent Yavuz Atalay and Kushner.
Mike Warren of Weekly Standard tweeted a White House official claimed this interview is 100% fake. In the fake interview, Aksam claims Kushner praised Turkey’s Erdogan, saying just like President Trump, he is working to make his country “great again.” Yavuz Atalay then writes Ivanka Trump joined in on the interview, professing her admiration for Turkey. Again, this entire interview is fake, written by Aksam’s White House Correspondent Yavuz Atala.
A White House official tells me this is “a fake interview that never happened.” https://t.co/tDywpC1dyz
— Mike Warren (@MichaelRWarren) July 27, 2017
Jared Kushner tells Turkish newspaper: “Like Trump, Erdogan is working to make his country great again.” https://t.co/l9R2KPNmuH
— Ayla Jean Yackley (@aylajean) July 27, 2017
Aksam wrote (via Google Translate):
I CAN NOT SUPPORT ERDOGAN
Jared Kushner, who answered Atalay’s question, “What are your views about Turkey and the Turkish government personally?” Trump’s “Make Great America Again”, saying, “Let’s make America big again”, Erdogan is working to make his country big again like Trump. We appreciate these efforts, “he said. Kushner responded to the question of terrorism as follows: The joint efforts of America, Turkey and other countries will end terrorism. We are taking sincere steps in this regard and trusting the sincerity of Turkey.
Ivanka Trump: I love Turkey
Jared Kushner has a short conversation with EVENING Washington correspondent Yavuz Atalay, US President Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump also chatted. Ivanka conveyed her love message to Turkey through her correspondent.
Your economy gives confidence
Kushner, who showed a positive attitude towards the United States and Turkey, said, “Countries like Turkey, countries that have the potential to develop and support development. Turkey is using this potential and creating a strong economy for itself. When we look at Turkey, in recent years, it has a trustworthy economy and develops it. ” As will be recalled, the IMF announced Turkey’s growth expectation at 2.5 percent, but in the first quarter of 2017 Turkey had grown by 5 percent.
source https://capitalisthq.com/wow-turkish-newspaper-publishes-fake-interview-with-jared-kushner/
POLITICO gets SCARAMUCCI’S financial disclosure, and he says he’ll call the FBI — SCHUMER to GOP: No amendments until repeal endgame — TY COBB praises Mueller — KATIE GLUECK on the Trump kids’ Instagram obsession
Also why a nervous Republican might vote against the "skinny repeal."
source https://capitalisthq.com/politico-gets-scaramuccis-financial-disclosure-and-he-says-hell-call-the-fbi-schumer-to-gop-no-amendments-until-repeal-endgame-ty-cobb-praises-mueller-katie-glueck-on-the/
Negligent DA’s Let Known ARSON RIOTER Go, Only to Re-offend
You may recall the story from a couple weeks ago where a Portland rioter is now facing federal arson charges for tossing burning flares into a Target store and a police cruiser. The suspect is Damion Feller and the event occurred as part of the May Day protest. But what you may not know is that the Multnomah County district attorney, Rod Underhill, had dropped charges on Feller from another protest-turned-riot that happened back in March.
Damion Feller’s previous charges of Reckless Burning and Disorderly were dismissed, just weeks before he went on another arson spree.
According to court documents, Feller had initially been charged with Disorderly Conduct and Reckless Burning, stemming from an event that took place on March 29th, 2017. They even released him on his own recognizance. On April 12th, All of those charges were dropped, aka “No Complaint”ed, just three weeks before Fellers next round of criminal behavior.
But wait, there’s more!
When he was arrested and booked on March 29th, he actually had a warrant out for him from Umatilla County in Oregon, where he was wanted on 2 counts of Failure To Appear, stemming from yet another case where he was charged with Theft Of Services, Trespass, and 3rd Degree Theft, along with a previous Failure To Appear charge. Umatilla had released him at one point due to overcrowding.
So, Multnomah County, where Portland is located, had someone in custody who was wanted in another county, and not only did they let the guy go on his own recognizance on March 30th, but they dropped the Multnomah charges they had on him, while still failing to deliver him back to Umatilla county, where he faced all of the previous charges.
This brings us to May 1st, 2017, where the negligence of the Multnomah County District Attorney and Sheriff’s department gave Feller an opportunity to *ALLEGEDLY* toss burning flares into a Target store and a police cruiser.
Amazingly, they are actually holding Feller in jail still and they have not let him out yet–so at least they finally got it right. But only until after Feller re-offended for the 5th time.
Damion Feller has been arrested several times, and his mugshots are plentiful. He even had the distinction of being featured in the East Oregonian’s Most Wanted list. Yet the DA’s and sheriffs continually let him go, only to see him wreak havoc on the citizens again.
source https://capitalisthq.com/negligent-das-let-known-arson-rioter-go-only-to-re-offend/
Wednesday 26 July 2017
What happened last night on Obamacare
Messer finance chair promises 'exciting news' Wednesday — Dems prod Heller, Flake amidst health care votes
source https://capitalisthq.com/what-happened-last-night-on-obamacare/
DC Detective of Seth Rich Murder: Follow the Awan Arrest Closely – Connect the Dots to “Other” Cases
Rod Wheeler is a Washington DC area detective.
Wheeler was hired by Seth Rich’s family back in March to help solve the murder of their son. Wheeler spoke to Sean Hannity in May and dropped a bombshell. According to Wheeler the D.C. police tipped off the DNC that he was hired “to snoop around.”
Sean Hannity reiterated that every time he personally asked Julian Assange if the Russians were involved, he said absolutely not. Given Wikileaks’ 11 year history of never being proven wrong, it’s safe to say that Julian Assange is being truthful.
Detective, Rod Wheeler said he hasn’t even seen Seth Rich’s computer. He asked both the D.C. police department and the FBI where Rich’s computer is and they claim they don’t know.
A very credible federal investigator on the inside is the one who laid eyes on Seth Rich’s computer and saw the case file. He is the one who relayed information to the detective that Seth Rich had been emailing Wikileaks. Every time the detective brings up Wikileaks to the police department, they shut him down.
Rod Wheeler: “Here’s one other thing that is going to be startling…I’m just gonna say this right now. I reached out to the police department way back in March when the family first hired me right..to get involved. I didn’t hear anything from the police department for 2-3 days.
Guess what I learned yesterday from the family of Seth Rich? The police department did not call me back because someone, a high ranking official at the DNC–check this out–a high ranking official at the DNC–when I called the police department, they got that information and called the Rich family wanting to know, why was I snooping around?”
Also in May Rod Wheeler told reporters there was evidence Seth Rich was emailing Wikileaks. Wheeler made the stunning accusation without having access to Seth Rich’s computer.
Now this…
Washington DC area detective Rod Wheeler tweeted out about the arrest of Imran Awan.
Wasserman Schultz aide arrested trying to leave the country https://t.co/UypKvCbQfL via @politico
— rod wheeler (@rodwheeler) July 26, 2017
Rod Wheeler then told his Twitter followers there may be a connection to Imran Awan’s arrest and “other” local cases.
Follow the arrest of Awan closely. Connect the dots to “other” cases. (hint, hint) Just the beginning. Stay tuned.
— rod wheeler (@rodwheeler) July 26, 2017
This could be huge.
Oh Sh**. #HisNameWasSethRich
Remember, Rod Wheeler breathed life into the Seth Rich case.
Thank you @rodwheeler https://t.co/d7KnjeavAu
— Steel123 (@Southpaw246) July 26, 2017
source https://capitalisthq.com/dc-detective-of-seth-rich-murder-follow-the-awan-arrest-closely-connect-the-dots-to-other-cases/
HOW THE GOP brought back Obamacare repeal ‘from the dead’ — MCCAIN’s maverick moment — SENATE GOP to TRUMP: confirming another AG is too hard — JEFF FLAKE’s secret new book — RICK PERRY duped — WHO TOOK NYT buyouts
Republican senators also signal their support for Jeff Sessions.
source https://capitalisthq.com/how-the-gop-brought-back-obamacare-repeal-from-the-dead-mccains-maverick-moment-senate-gop-to-trump-confirming-another-ag-is-too-hard-jeff-flakes-secret-n/
Wasserman Shultz’s IT Staffer Imran Awan’s Wife Flees to Pakistan — Makes Off with $295,000 (Video)
Democrat Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s Pakistani IT staffer Imran Awan who was arrested at Dulles airport on Monday while trying to flee the United States.
His wife fled the country with $12,000 in her luggage.
Awan successfully wired $283,000 to Pakistan before his arrest on Monday.
As previously reported, Chad Pergram of Fox News tweeted a breaking report on Dem Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz Pakistani IT staffer Imran Awan was arrested at Dulles airport while trying to flee the United States.
Awan had $12,000 cash on him at the time of the arrest.
Feds/USCP bust Hse IT staffer Imran Awan & charge him with multiple counts of bank fraud as part of Hse IT procurement scandal
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) July 25, 2017
Feds/USCP picked up Imran Awan at Dulles Aiport last night as he was “trying to leave the country.” Has been arraigned. Surrendered passport
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) July 25, 2017
The Daily Caller reported Tuesday that the Pakistani IT staffers wired $283,000 from Congressional Federal Credit Union in a House office building to two people in Pakistan. Awan was also carrying $12,000 on him at the time of the arrest.
Now this…
Luke Rosiak at the Daily Caller went on FOX Business Network on Wednesday. Rosiak told Stuart Varney that Imran Awan’s wife got out of the US with $12,000. Imran was arrested with $12,000 on him.
Democrat Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s Pakistani IT staffer Imran Awan who was arrested at Dulles airport on Monday while trying to flee the United States.
His wife was carrying $12,000 with her when she left the US. Awan successfully wired $300,000 to Pakistan before he tried to flee.
source https://capitalisthq.com/wasserman-shultzs-it-staffer-imran-awans-wife-flees-to-pakistan-makes-off-with-295000-video/
The Hungry Bear
The stock market bear is hungry. His fangs are out, but the stock market has a fang, too. FANG consists of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Goog—all of which have made fantastic gains during the current bull run. These stocks are bloated pigs, but the bear continues to be thwarted.
Since its tragic inception in 1913, the Federal Reserve has made sure we got plenty of war and bubbles, including more recently the Internet Bubble, the Housing Bubble and now we have the current bull market. Some are calling it ‘the greatest bubble ever.’
When will the bull market collapse? Some say this year, but we’ve heard that every year since the last drop. The doom and gloomers continue to get it wrong. People such as Martin Armstrong, who is predicting the market will double again from here, continues to get it right. The technicals show weaker pullbacks and smaller gains on lower volume. The signs point to a blowoff top and that is attracting a lot of short interest, but many traders have already shorted the market and individual stocks again and again, only to get burned over and over again. The bear remains very hungry.
-Ben Garrison
source https://capitalisthq.com/the-hungry-bear/
Flake challengers meeting with White House
Senate fundraising numbers in Alabama, Indiana, Ohio — NRSC hits 'Trump state Democrats' — Kaine hires 2018 senior staff
source https://capitalisthq.com/flake-challengers-meeting-with-white-house/
Top Obama Aide Ben Rhodes Hauled in For Questioning by House Intel Committee
The House Intelligence Committee met with former Obama Deputy National Security Advisor, Ben Rhodes Tuesday according to a report.
All of the Obama holdovers NEED TO GO!
The Washington Examiner reports:
The House Intelligence Committee met with former Obama deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes, according to a report Tuesday.
It was already known that Jared Kushner, top adviser and son-in-law to President Trump, on Tuesday spoke with members of the panel, which is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible ties to the Trump campaign. CNN’s Manu Raju tweeted Tuesday evening that the network’s chief political analyst Gloria Borger had learned that Rhodes also spoke to the committee.
The Intelligence Committee is investigating intelligence leaks, and Rhodes has become a person of interest for certain Republicans as someone who may be playing a role in the leaking of classified information from the Trump administration to reporters.
TGP previously reported, Rep. Ron DeSantis, a member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, called on the DoJ to “launch a formal investigation” into former FBI Direct Comey’s leaks, according to the Washington Free Beacon.
DeSantis named Ben Rhodes—the former National Security Council official responsible for creating an in-house “echo chamber” meant to mislead reporters and the public about the landmark nuclear deal with Iran—as a primary source of these leaks and urged the House Intelligence Committee to call Rhodes and other former Obama officials to testify publicly about any role they may be playing in spreading classified information to reporters.
DeSantis named former National Security Council official Ben Rhodes as being responsible for “creating an in-house ‘echo-chamber’ meant to mislead reporters and the public”.
DeSantis commented:
“Any Obama holdover at any of these agencies, you’ve got to get them out of there because clearly they’re not on the same team and particularly on the [White House] National Security Council”.
DeSantis goes on to say:
“I think Congress and some members of the Intelligence Committee can call Ben Rhodes to testify . . . He may be able to invoke executive privilege from when Obama was president but he definitely can’t do that in any interactions he’s had since then.”
source https://capitalisthq.com/top-obama-aide-ben-rhodes-hauled-in-for-questioning-by-house-intel-committee/
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